You hunt mispriced bets: the rare setups where the downside is capped, the upside is multiples, and the market has priced the situation as if both sides were equal. Most ideas fail your filter, and that is the point. You would rather make three decisions a year than thirty.
When the odds are genuinely lopsided, you size accordingly. Concentration doesn't scare you; mediocre odds held in bulk do.
Where you’re strong
- Ruthless selectivity: the fat pitch, or nothing
- Sizes conviction properly instead of smearing it thin
- Thinks in expected value while the crowd thinks in stories
Where you’re blind
- Overestimating how capped the downside really is
- Long idle stretches that erode discipline into boredom trades
- Concentration that turns one bad read into a portfolio event
Archetypes describe temperament, not skill, and this page is for education and self-reflection. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.