The Yield Curve: The macro signal that reaches directly into your business models
AvailableWhen Wells Fargo's net interest margin compressed from 5.
Worked example: Silicon Valley Bank — March 2023
Interest Rates and the Cost of Capital: The single variable that determines whether your valuation holds or collapses
AvailableIn 2022, the fastest Federal Reserve hiking cycle in 40 years compressed the S&P 500 P/E ratio from roughly 24x to 17x, not because earnings fell, but because the discount rate applied to future earnings normalized from near zero to 4%-plus, and valuations built on ZIRP-era...
Worked example: Zoom Video Communications — the 2022 discount rate collapse
Inflation Regimes and Real Returns: The Pricing Power Test That Separates Real Compounders from Imposters
AvailableGeneral Mills' gross margin fell from 35.
Worked example: General Mills vs. Colgate-Palmolive — the 2021–2023 pricing power gap
Credit Spreads as a Risk Indicator: What the Bond Market Prices Before the Equity Market Moves
AvailableMacro 04: Knowledge Centre
Worked example: US energy sector — the HY blow-out of 2015–16
Currency Risk and Global Portfolios: The Second Investment You Never Agreed To Make
AvailableWhen you buy shares in a company that earns revenue in a foreign currency, you are making two investments at once: one in the business, and one in the exchange rate. Most investors only research one of them.
Worked example: 🏷️ Procter & Gamble — 2014–2015
Commodity Cycles and Input Costs: The margin swing that arrives before management sees it coming
AvailableBetween June 2014 and January 2016, the oil price fell from $115 to $28 per barrel.
Worked example: Delta Air Lines — the 2014–2016 oil crash
The Capital Cycle and Industry Structure: How the flow of capital determines returns before earnings show it
AvailableIn 2007, with the Baltic Dry Index averaging 7,070 points for the year and briefly touching 11,793 in May 2008 (its highest level in recorded history), dry bulk shipowners placed orders for new vessels at a pace that would add more than 50% to the existing global fleet.
Worked example: Dry bulk shipping — 2004–2016
Central Banks and Monetary Policy: How the price of time shapes the value of everything
AvailableIn March 2022, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the first increase since December 2018.
Worked example: S&P 500 — 2022 hiking cycle: Fed Funds 0.25% → 5.50% in 16 months, long-duration tech multiples compressed 75–80% as discount rates repriced
Economic Cycles and Sector Rotation: How the business cycle's four phases determine which companies lead and lag
AvailableBetween 1999 and 2002, the US economy went through a recession triggered by the collapse of the technology bubble.
Worked example: The COVID cycle — 2020–2023